Economic collapse and internal paranoia is driving Putin to launch desperate purges against exiled opposition leaders.
Story Highlights
- FSB opens criminal case against exiled oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 Anti-War Committee members, alleging coup plot
- Russia’s economy teeters on recession with 40% inflation since Ukraine invasion and banking sector crisis
- Experts cite Putin’s growing paranoia following 2023 Wagner mutiny as sign of regime vulnerability
- No clear succession plan amplifies fears of power vacuum and internal chaos
Putin’s Paranoid Purge Targets Exiled Opposition
The Russian Federal Security Service opened a criminal case in October 2025 against exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of his Russian Anti-War Committee, accusing them of plotting a “violent seizure of power” and forming a “terrorist community.” Khodorkovsky, who founded the committee in 2022 to oppose Russia’s Ukraine invasion, dismissed the allegations as baseless paranoia. Western analysts interpret this move as clear evidence of the Kremlin’s growing anxiety about internal threats to Putin’s authority.
Watch: Putin is scared of a Russian uprising | Cormac Smith
Economic Crisis Threatens Regime Stability
Russia’s economy faces unprecedented strain with inflation exceeding 40% since the war began, a record budget deficit, and a banking sector burdened by non-performing loans to defense industries. The defense sector has become financially overextended through massive borrowing and state support, creating systemic vulnerabilities throughout the Russian financial system. Timothy Ash from Chatham House notes that “Russia has finally been hurt for the first time in three and a half years. There is some panic.”
Wagner Mutiny Exposed Regime Weaknesses
The June 2023 Wagner Group mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin marked the most serious internal challenge to Putin’s rule in decades, demonstrating that even loyal paramilitary forces could turn against the regime. This unprecedented breach of Putin’s security apparatus shattered the illusion of unquestioned loyalty among Russia’s military elite. The mutiny’s psychological impact continues to haunt the Kremlin, contributing to the current atmosphere of paranoia and succession anxiety plaguing Putin’s inner circle.
John Herbst from the Atlantic Council observes that “The Kremlin is slipping into paranoia. Putin is looking for enemies to try to strengthen his regime.” The lack of a designated successor amplifies these fears, creating uncertainty about Russia’s political future and increasing the risk of factional conflict.
International Pressure Intensifies Domestic Crisis
New U.S. Treasury sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil further pressure the oil-dependent economy, limiting Moscow’s ability to finance its military operations and domestic priorities. These sanctions compound existing economic difficulties and international isolation that have persisted since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. The combination of external pressure and internal dissent creates a perfect storm threatening the regime’s long-term survival.
While no immediate organized coup appears imminent, the conditions for instability continue deepening as economic hardship spreads and public discontent grows despite heavy state repression. The regime’s response of increased surveillance, purges, and targeting of perceived enemies reveals the fundamental weakness beneath Putin’s authoritarian facade.
Sources:
Putin fears a coup as Russia shows its weakness
Putin gripped by coup fears as Kremlin faces crisis
Kremlin in paranoia: experts cite coup fears amid sanctions pressure
Putin fears another coup – The Telegraph
Kremlin panic rises as Putin fears coup, faces sanctions and economic collapse
