Former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Biden in various swing states, according to recent polling data, setting the stage for a contentious electoral showdown as the 2024 elections draw near.
Panic in Washington as even CBS News says, "We've seen a slew of polls now that show that Americans — many of them, a majority of them — think that the economy was better under Trump than under Biden." WATCH pic.twitter.com/twASUNo8vo
— Simon Ateba (@simonateba) May 9, 2024
A series of polls conducted by reputable organizations such as Harvard/Harris, Echelon Insights, and Rasmussen Reports have consistently shown Trump ahead of Biden in several key metrics. In the Harvard/Harris poll conducted from May 15 to May 19, Trump secured 47% of the vote compared to Biden’s 36%. Even with the addition of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump maintained a significant lead.
Similarly, the poll by Echelon Insights indicated Trump’s dominance with 49% support, while Rasmussen Reports showed a 10-percentage-point lead over Biden among likely U.S. voters.
Despite a neck-to-neck race in a Morning Consult poll, Trump managed to maintain a slight advantage, leading Biden by one percentage point.
The latest predictions at Polymarket suggest a favorable outlook for Trump, with 55% of participants betting on his victory, signaling a 14-percentage-point lead over Biden.
As poll aggregating X account Interactive Polls noted in a post on X, this is Trump’s “greatest lead” over Biden since March 10.
.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Trump 55% (+16)
🟦 Biden 39%
🟨 RFK Jr 2%Trump's greatest lead since March 10.https://t.co/FHYS1YtBzk https://t.co/ytlQYJyYA0 pic.twitter.com/328yPfOxZA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 22, 2024
Trump’s lead is particularly evident in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. RealClear Polling’s average of multiple polls indicates Trump’s dominance across these states, with a 3.6-percentage-point lead over Biden.
Analysts attribute Trump’s strong showing to several factors, including a reduction in the share of undecided voters and a boost in support among minority groups. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) noted Biden’s continued strength among black voters but acknowledged Trump’s growing appeal among minority communities.
Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, emphasized the significance of shifting voting preferences among minority voters, citing both survey data and electoral results as evidence of this trend.
Trump’s resurgence in support comes amidst ongoing debates and anticipation surrounding the upcoming debates, highlighting the intense scrutiny and polarization characterizing American politics.
