A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Thursday reveals that a majority of registered voters say a guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s trial would not impact their vote in the 2024 presidential election. The survey found that 67% of respondents believe a conviction would make no difference, while 17% say they would be less likely to vote for Trump and 15% say they would be more likely.
Similarly, 76% of registered voters say a not guilty verdict would not affect their vote, with 9% stating they would be less likely to support Trump and 14% saying they would be more likely. The poll, conducted between May 21 and May 23, surveyed 1,261 adults with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Trump is currently facing 34 felony counts in Manhattan for allegedly falsifying business records related to a $130,000 payment made to porn actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign. Despite Daniels testifying that she had no direct knowledge of Trump’s involvement in the payment, the former president has characterized District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case as a corrupt attempt to interfere with the upcoming election.
Despite the ongoing trial, Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in critical swing states. In a two-way general election race, Trump holds a narrow 0.9-point lead over Biden according to the latest RealClearPolling average. In a five-way race that includes independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s lead over Biden increases to 2.2 points.
