Job Growth Predicted To Slow In 2024 With Stagflation Period

Research findings indicate a looming slowdown in job growth paired with persistently high inflation, potentially ushering in a period of stagflation in the latter half of 2024.

According to insights shared by The Daily Caller, the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) saw a decline to 111.25 in April, down from March’s 112.16. This downtrend in the index likely signals a forthcoming deceleration in job creation. The Conference Board’s report underscores existing worries surrounding the economy’s fragility, encompassing sluggish growth, elevated unemployment levels, and inflationary pressures collectively known as “stagflation.”

Will Baltrus, an associate economist at The Conference Board, highlighted the significance of the ETI’s decline, indicating a potential stall in employment growth during the latter part of 2024. Baltrus noted that the ETI has been steadily descending since its peak in March 2022, with April’s figures continuing this downward trajectory. Despite this, the index maintains historically elevated levels, suggesting a probability of employment growth slowdown rather than aggregate job losses.

Key metrics contributing to the report’s insights include negative shifts in the perception of job accessibility among respondents, the ratio of involuntary part-time workers to total part-time employment, and the volume of hires for temporary positions. The report identifies diminished consumer demand for goods and services as the primary driver behind projected increases in unemployment in the near future.

April witnessed the addition of approximately 175,000 jobs, significantly lower than economists’ expectations of 243,000. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product (GDP) registered a modest 1.6% growth in the first quarter of 2024, accompanied by a persistent inflation rate of 3.5% year-over-year as of March.