Texas Democrats are mounting an ambitious campaign to break their 30-year losing streak in statewide elections by targeting a U.S. Senate seat, but history and political realities suggest they face an uphill battle.
At a Glance
- The upcoming Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred is drawing national attention as Democrats aim to win their first Texas Senate seat since 1993
- No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994, creating a significant historical barrier
- Democrats are encouraged by demographic shifts in counties like Travis and Hays, which have shown increasing Democratic support
- Potential GOP primary challenges, particularly if Attorney General Ken Paxton challenges Sen. John Cornyn, could create an opening for Democrats
- Democrats are launching a “Blue Texas” campaign backed by significant resources to recruit candidates and mobilize voters
Three Decades of Republican Dominance
Texas Democrats face a daunting historical challenge as they set their sights on capturing a U.S. Senate seat in the upcoming election. The party has not held a Senate seat since 1993, and no Democrat has won any statewide election in Texas since 1994. This 30-year drought has created a significant psychological barrier for Democratic candidates and voters alike. The anticipated matchup between incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred represents the party’s latest attempt to overcome this historical obstacle.
While the statewide picture has consistently favored Republicans, certain regions have shown promising shifts for Democrats. Travis County has evolved into a reliable Democratic stronghold, with Democratic candidates enjoying increasing margins of victory over the past decade. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke received an impressive 74% of Travis County votes in his Senate race against Cruz. Perhaps more telling is the transformation in Hays County, which shifted from supporting Cruz by 9 points in 2012 to backing O’Rourke by 15 points in 2018 – a 24-point swing that indicates changing demographics and voter preferences.
Building on “Beto-mania” Momentum
Democrats are drawing inspiration from the 2018 Senate race, when Beto O’Rourke’s energetic campaign came within 2.6 percentage points of defeating Ted Cruz. That “Beto-mania” phenomenon not only made the Senate race competitive but helped Democrats flip several legislative seats across the state. Party strategists believe they can replicate and build upon this momentum in upcoming elections, especially with a strong candidate like Colin Allred, a former NFL player turned congressman, leading their ticket.
“Republicans like the fact that Democrats hadn’t won a race statewide since 1994 as a demoralizing factor.”, said Mark Jones.
Allred has positioned himself as a moderate Democrat focused on kitchen-table issues rather than progressive ideological battles. His campaign strategy involves criticizing both potential Republican opponents – highlighting what Democrats describe as Paxton’s corruption issues and Cornyn’s alleged lack of independence from party leadership. This approach aims to appeal to moderate voters who might be uncomfortable with the rightward shift of the Texas Republican Party while still addressing the economic concerns that resonate with the broader electorate.
Republican Primary Dynamics Could Create Opening
Political analysts suggest that a critical factor in Democrats’ chances could be the Republican primary. Senator John Cornyn may face a challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has positioned himself as a Trump loyalist but carries significant political baggage, including ongoing legal troubles. Political observers note that while Cornyn has maintained relatively stable approval ratings, Paxton is viewed as a more polarizing figure who could potentially alienate moderate Republican and independent voters if he secures the nomination.
Democratic strategists are not subtle about their preference for facing Paxton in a general election. Katherine Fischer, a Democratic Party spokesperson, explicitly stated: “With Trump back in the White House and Ken Paxton dragging down the GOP ticket, we have a massive opportunity to win in 2026.” This sentiment underscores the party’s belief that Paxton’s controversies could create sufficient vulnerability to overcome the traditional Republican advantage in statewide races.
Mobilizing Resources for the “Blue Texas” Campaign
Democrats are backing their optimism with substantial resources. The Soros-backed Texas Majority PAC is partnering with Texas Democrats to launch a comprehensive “Blue Texas” campaign aimed at recruiting candidates and mobilizing voters across the state. This initiative represents a strategic shift from previous cycles when national Democratic organizations often viewed Texas as too expensive and challenging to justify major investments. The campaign’s stated goals are twofold: winning in the short term while building infrastructure to make Texas a true battleground state in the long term.
Despite these efforts, political realities remain challenging for Democrats. Texas continues to lean Republican in statewide elections, and the structural advantages of incumbency cannot be overlooked. Even sympathetic analysts acknowledge that Democrats face significant obstacles, particularly if Cornyn secures renomination. The upcoming election will test whether demographic shifts and strategic investments are sufficient to overcome three decades of Republican dominance in the Lone Star State.
