Arizona Republicans believe that a surprising early-voting surge could be a game-changer in this election. More than 2.2 million Arizonans have voted early, and GOP voters lead Democrats by over 182,000 ballots. Arizona GOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda shared her optimism, stating, “Unless Democrats drastically change their [voting] behavior by Tuesday, I think we’re in a very good position.”
Republicans’ early-voting turnout stands at 58.3%, slightly ahead of Democrats at 57.4%. Independent voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, have a turnout rate just below 38%. Swoboda is encouraged by the number of new and low-propensity voters showing support for the GOP, many of whom didn’t vote in the last two election cycles.
Caroline Wren — Republicans are looking at +9 lead in Arizona early voting. MAGA turnout was greatly underestimated by polls.pic.twitter.com/9eIXpCFMJw
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 2, 2024
Swoboda emphasized that the early ballots haven’t drawn away from those expected on Election Day. Instead, she expects a strong turnout from Republican voters both before and on Election Day. However, she cautioned that Arizona’s lengthy four-page ballot may lead to long lines at polling places.
Events across Arizona, including Trump’s recent rally in Tempe, have prominently displayed banners urging Republicans to vote early. Kari Lake, the GOP Senate candidate, has also encouraged early voting, hoping to counter Democrats’ traditional advantage with mail-in ballots.
.@kleavittnh: President Trump is holding TEN rallies in the next three days — barnstorming the country. It's been more than 70 days and he has not taken a single day off… If you look at the early voting trends in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia — Republicans are leading. pic.twitter.com/RMKNZCMwJJ
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 2, 2024
Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, have also pushed their supporters to turn out. But Swoboda believes the GOP’s ground game, coupled with its strong early-voting lead, could be enough to deliver wins across Arizona on Election Day.
