US-Venezuela Oil Deal: Who Really Wins?

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Washington is preparing to loosen the screws on Venezuela sanctions yet again, raising big questions about who really benefits as U.S. officials move to market that country’s oil “indefinitely” under American control.

Story Snapshot

Trump officials signal more Venezuela sanctions relief “as soon as next week” to keep oil flowing under U.S.-run deals.
Venezuela’s 30–50 million barrels of crude are being sold by U.S.-approved traders, with proceeds held in American banks.
Sanctions architecture technically remains, but OFAC licenses create a complex carve‑out system favoring select players.
Policy aims to boost U.S. energy security and cut out China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba from Venezuela’s oil sector.

Sanctions Relief Signals And A New Phase In Venezuela Policy

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly indicated that Washington could lift additional sanctions on Venezuela as early as next week to facilitate more oil sales, building on a rapid series of policy moves since Nicolás Maduro’s capture on January 3, 2026. The administration has already endorsed a controlled easing approach, using narrow licenses and guidance instead of a blanket repeal. This strategy lets officials unlock crude flows while keeping formal sanctions leverage intact over Venezuela’s still‑blocked state oil company and government.

The pivot followed years of sweeping measures against PDVSA under Executive Orders 13850 and 13884, which cut the Maduro regime off from oil revenue and targeted a shadow fleet of tankers moving sanctioned barrels. Those restrictions, combined with chronic mismanagement and under‑investment, left Venezuela’s production crippled and crude parked on idle tankers offshore. After Maduro’s removal, interim authorities in Caracas gave Washington a counterpart willing to cooperate, and U.S. policymakers quickly shifted from pure pressure to managed engagement.

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The 30–50 Million Barrel Deal And U.S. Control Of Revenue

President Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim leadership would hand over 30–50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States for sale at market prices, framing it as a way to both clear blocked crude and support global supply. Under the arrangement, U.S. agencies and licensed traders are responsible for marketing these barrels, and officials have said the United States expects to keep selling Venezuelan oil “indefinitely,” with proceeds largely controlled from accounts in American banks instead of flowing freely to Caracas.

Reports indicate commodity giant Vitol has a preliminary special license to market Venezuelan oil imports and exports for 18 months, and that Vitol and Trafigura are in talks with the administration alongside U.S. majors. This gives a narrow group of companies early access to a reopened market, all under tight Treasury oversight and continued compliance risk for unlicensed actors.

Selective Rollback, Energy Security, And Geopolitical Leverage

A January 7, 2026 Department of Energy fact sheet confirms that the United States is “selectively rolling back” sanctions to allow Venezuelan crude and products to reach global markets, while authorizing imports of certain oilfield equipment and services. The goal is to stabilize supply, especially in heavy sour crude segments used by U.S. refiners, and to begin reversing years of infrastructure decline.

Administration guidance summarized by counsel makes clear that any long‑term oil revival in Venezuela is conditional. Washington has signaled it will not authorize expanded production unless Caracas severs economic ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba and instead partners exclusively with the United States on oil output and preferential sales.

Compliance Maze, Market Shifts, And Who Benefits

For companies and investors, the new framework creates opportunity and risk in equal measure. The core sanctions program remains on the books, but a growing lattice of specific and general licenses carves out channels for particular trades, vessels, and projects. That patchwork demands heavy legal due diligence, especially for shippers and banks that previously saw Venezuelan barrels as too radioactive to touch. Traders under license gain a clear commercial edge, while others risk penalties if they misread the evolving guidance.

US could lift additional sanctions on Venezuela next week to facilitate oil sales https://t.co/qp0PkBphjP pic.twitter.com/eqCilR2xHB

— New York Post (@nypost) January 10, 2026

Short term, the marketed 30–50 million barrels add supply that could ease price pressure for American drivers and manufacturers, aligning with energy‑security priorities and efforts to lower inflation without returning to dependency on hostile producers. Longer term, conditional monetization—selling oil while freezing proceeds in U.S. accounts until governance benchmarks are met—could become a template well beyond Venezuela. For conservatives focused on sovereignty and accountability, the key test will be whether this leverage is used to secure real reforms, or merely to grow the government’s reach over another foreign revenue stream.