Emerson Poll: Trump Leads Biden By 3% in NC

According to the latest Emerson College Polling survey out Wednesday, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election in North Carolina by 3%.

In a hypothetical head-to-head general election matchup between the two leading presidential candidates for each major party, Trump would receive 47% of the vote in North Carolina if the election took place today. Meanwhile, Biden polled at 44% in the state, barely within the margin of error for the survey, so the election remains close in the Tar Heel State.

Another reason North Carolina remains a tossup — 10% of respondents to the Emerson College Polling survey released on Wednesday are still undecided. Any of those could decide — between now and November — to swing toward Trump or Biden for their presidential election ballot. But the odds turn markedly in Trump’s favor after adding third-party candidates.

“With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Trump leads 46% to 37%, while 5% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Eleven percent are undecided,” said Emerson College Polling and The Hill in a statement published with the survey results.

Nearly all of the undecided voters in North Carolina would have to swing for Biden for him to overcome his polling disadvantage to Trump in a general election with third-party candidates on the ballot.

Kennedy entered the general election race as an independent in October after dropping his bid for the Democrat Party’s nomination. The move drew silence from national Democrats and criticism from the GOP and the Trump campaign. But the North Carolina poll reveals Kennedy — even with his anti-vax positions — will likely draw voters away from Biden in November.

Among voters under age 30, Trump significantly trails Biden, but he ties with Biden among voters in their 40s and holds a strong lead among those over 50.

“A majority of voters under 30 break for President Biden over Trump, 53% to 35%, along with a plurality of voters in their 30s, 47% to 40%. Voters in their 40s are evenly split: 45% support each candidate. Voters over 50 support Trump over Biden, 52% to 40%,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

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