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The ability to not overplay one’s hand is a skill rarely possessed within the confines of Washington. Politicians continually reach heights, only to throw it all away in a desperate ploy to fly just a little closer to the sun. Thus is the current Democrat party, which you’d expect would be focused on governing given they’ve retaken the White House and Senate. Instead, they are obsessed with revenge and punishing those they see as ideological inferiors. The result of that is the ridiculous impeachment gambit currently being pushed.
Democrats (and a few Republicans) want to try Trump for “incitement” after he leaves office. Putting aside whether Congress even has jurisdiction to do so at that point, the facts simply aren’t on their side. There’s now evidence pointing the idea that the Capitol riot was pre-planned. There’s also the fact that Trump did not call for violence in his speech, explicitly asking people to march “peacefully.” The current impeachment attempt is relying completely on supposition and emotional pleas as its basis. To say it’s an abuse of the system is an understatement, and that’s true regardless of what you may or may not personally think of Trump.
Unfortunately for those thirsty to convict Trump and vote to bar him from running in 2024, collapse for the ploy is already fading. Yes, Democrats really, really want this to happen, but outside of that group, the splits are not favorable.
Overall support among voters is already underwater. The same is true of independents when you siphon them off and analyze their numbers. Republicans obviously heavily oppose the push to impeach and convict Trump. It’s not even close, so if certain elements of the right were hoping for a bit of a groundswell, that’s not happening. Liz Cheney walked out on a limb and it looks like it’s going to be cut off behind her.
Of course, public perception alone isn’t that important here. No one will be talking about this in 2022, nor do I expect any backlash to still show up at the polls when that time comes. But public perception insofar as it influences Republican politicians right now is important. These numbers simply do not support the idea that there’s 17 Republicans willing to convict Trump. Heck, there may not even be five at this rate. Very few GOP Senators want to burn their career down over a pointless exercise. That means this will fail, and Democrats will be left holding the bag again. Instead of getting their revenge, they’ll look like petty tyrants trying to punish their political enemies even after they’ve already won an election. That rarely sits well.
All of this is good news for Trump. He’s not going to be convicted, and he can run again in 2024 if he so chooses. Further, I think this is will actually push him toward doing so, which will be another backfire on the left (and some on the right) who are eager to see him embarrassed and cast aside. Once again, they didn’t think this through.