The 2024 election took an unexpected turn after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his independent run in key battleground states and endorsed President Donald Trump. Polls conducted by Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, suggest this move could significantly boost Trump’s chances in crucial states. Notably, Kennedy’s support appeared to draw more from Trump than from the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, in previous surveys.
Fabrizio’s recent polling data from battleground states highlight RFK Jr.’s impact. In Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Kennedy was capturing 3% to 5% of the vote before stepping back. More significantly, the data reveal that Kennedy’s supporters favor Trump over Harris by nearly two-to-one in these states.
For instance, in Arizona, 53% of Kennedy’s backers shifted their support to Trump compared to only 28% for Harris, with the remaining voters undecided. Georgia saw a narrower margin with a 13% net gain for Trump among RFK Jr.’s voters. In Michigan, the race is tight with only a 2% advantage. The other battlegrounds—North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—show RFK Jr. voters breaking toward Trump by margins ranging from 16% to 21%.
These percentages might seem small, but every vote counts in swing states where margins are razor-thin. RealClearPolitics’ averages show Trump narrowly leading Harris in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina by 0.2% to 1.4%. Meanwhile, Harris holds slim advantages in Wisconsin and Michigan by 1% and 2%, respectively.
The ripple effect of RFK Jr.’s endorsement could be decisive in these battlegrounds, where just a few thousand votes may tip the scales. As the race tightens, both campaigns are likely to recalibrate their strategies to account for this unexpected shift.
