Researchers Say Underwater Volcano Near Oregon Likely To Erupt In 2025

A deep-sea volcano about 300 miles off Oregon’s coast is showing signs that another eruption could occur this year. Scientists monitoring Axial Seamount have recorded consistent activity, leading them to believe the next event is approaching.

Axial Seamount, recognized as the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific, has followed a pattern of eruptions, with previous ones occurring in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Researchers tracking its activity have observed that it inflates as molten rock builds up inside, a process seen before past eruptions. Based on this cycle, scientists expect another event in 2025.

William Chadwick, a research associate at Oregon State University, has been studying Axial Seamount for years and has noted its predictability. “It seems to have this pretty repeatable pattern from one eruption to the next,” he said. Instruments installed on the seafloor send continuous updates, providing real-time insights into the volcano’s activity.

Even if an eruption happens, researchers say there is no risk to humans. Axial Seamount sits nearly a mile below the ocean surface, meaning that any lava flow or seismic activity would not impact coastal areas. “If you were on a boat above the volcano, you wouldn’t know at all that it had erupted,” said Scott Nooner, a geophysics professor at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington.

This volcano, classified as a shield volcano, produces slow-moving lava flows rather than explosive eruptions. Scientists have been using it as a research site to refine their ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Studying underwater volcanoes allows researchers to test prediction models without the risk of false alarms leading to unnecessary evacuations.

An expedition in June 2024 deployed remotely operated vehicles to the site to gather additional data. Researchers hope that continued observation of Axial Seamount will lead to better techniques for predicting eruptions elsewhere, including for volcanoes closer to populated areas.