Even though polls are consistently showing the GOP is likely to retake control of the House and has a puncher’s chance at the Senate in the midterm elections in November, pollster Robert Cahaly with Trafalgar believes MAGA Republican voters are being underrepresented in mainstream surveys.
Cahaly points out that the Democratic strategy of rolling Joe Biden out with angry and accusatory rhetoric that apparently is designed to motivate the liberal base and even independents could very easily backfire. That could lead to a bigger than expected “Red Wave” election that could strip control of both houses of Congress from Democrats.
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
In a tweet thread he posted last weekend, Cahaly says that the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that occurred in 2016 led to sometimes wildly inaccurate polling. Of course, that year saw Hillary Clinton describe mainstream Republicans as “deplorables” and other harsh names. The public lost much of its confidence in political polling after President Trump handily defeated Clinton.
Then in 2020, Trump voters and conservatives who declined to go along with the emerging “woke” culture in government, media, and corporations found themselves being “canceled.” That further entrenched the existence of “hidden voters” who are less likely to openly discuss their opinions with pollsters.
Cahaly said that the Biden administration’s aggressive classification of MAGA Republicans as “semi-fascists” and as direct threats to American democracy has created another new class of citizens – “submerged voters.”
The submerged GOP voters “aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.” Cahaly said that Biden has now created an “army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll.” He predicts that Republican voter turnout in November will likely be higher than any mainstream outlets are predicting.
Democrats nationwide are also struggling with whether they want to be associated with the failing Biden White House policies as voters are giving Joe Biden very poor approval ratings. The illegal immigration crisis at the southern border and the tanking economy amid surging inflation is leaving many of the party’s candidates searching for leadership that voters can trust.
Republicans currently have a 68% chance of taking control of the House, according to liberal analyst organization FiveThirtyEight. The GOP needs at least 218 seats in the House to obtain a majority and RealClearPolitics current rates that exact number as being either “safe,” “likely,” or “leaning” Republican.