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An interesting “growing fears” piece appeared in the WaPo about Joe Biden’s prospects in 2024: “One Democrat involved in campaigns said they couldn’t think of a single person they had spoken to in the last month who considers the possibility of Biden running again to be a real one.”
Biden has been reassuring donors that he certainly intends to run again in 2024, but skepticism is running rampant even as panic about the heir-apparent position of Kamala Harris starts to set in. Florida trial lawyer John Morgan, who was a major donor to the Biden campaign in 2020, had this to say: “What is his health going to be in the next three years? All you have to do is look at the mortality tables in America to understand what I’m saying.”
Democrats are openly wondering why a man who didn’t show an overwhelming amount of energy in his 2020 campaign will have the strength to go out on the hustings in the fall of 2024, just shy of his 82nd birthday. Should Dems really believe his assurances about running again?
“I hear this question get asked every day,” a campaign veteran told the WaPo. “No one ever asked that question about Barack Obama. No one ever asked that question about Donald Trump.”
A November 19 poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies has Donald Trump beating President Biden by 44 to 39 and beating Vice President Kamala Harris by 45 to 36. These are large margins considering that the Democrats’ recent habit of piling up huge margins of victory in blue coastal states means that Trump would presumably enjoy a strong Electoral College advantage again if the popular vote is close.