A new survey released Monday revealed a startling 72% of economists believe the U.S. will be in a recession by the middle of next year. Most polled by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) expect a recessionary economy by the summer of 2023, or even sooner.
The findings by NABE are in line with a June survey of leading academic economists by the Financial Times. That polling found that almost 70% believe that the economy, encumbered with the highest inflation in four decades, will sink into recession next year.
Several major U.S. banks also follow this course, with many predicting recession sooner than 2023.
The nation experienced back-to-back economic contractions in the first two quarters of 2022, and for many that is a benchmark of a recession. However, only 19%, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, say that the U.S. is already experiencing a recession.
Perhaps even more troubling is that 73% of economists say that they are either “not very confident” or “not at all confident” that the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation without triggering recession.
A full majority, 51%, are not at all confident of the likelihood that the central bank can reach its 2% inflation goal without causing a severe economic contraction.
Can the Fed moderate the US #economy amid continued inflation and predictions that the US will enter a #recession within 2023? @TaraSinc comments in @FT that the Fed's job is like "landing a plane on a tightrope, and the winds are blowing." Read more here: https://t.co/sr1Iz9Q6Tg
— IIEP at GWU (@IIEPGW) June 13, 2022
On the flip side, a paltry 3% are “very confident” that the Fed can navigate inflation down without spurring recession.
There is a substantial reversal of opinion by economists from earlier this year on how stimulative monetary policy is for the country. A record 77% in March said the policy was too stimulative, but that was before the series of rate hikes commenced.
That number has now shrunk to 44%, and another 46% believe monetary policy currently is “just right.”
Any way it’s viewed, the vast majority of economists foretell a looming recession on Biden’s watch. No matter how much wiggling the White House is trying to do to get away from that public perception, the experts as well as American voters are not fooled.