
As the 2024 presidential election enters its final stretch, over 15 million Americans have already voted, and Republicans are seeing promising early results in key battleground states. According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 5 million people have voted in person, while 10 million have submitted mail-in ballots. With millions of mail-in ballots still outstanding, early signs point to strong Republican momentum.
In Arizona, a critical swing state, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in early voting among low-propensity voters—those who haven’t consistently participated in past elections. This group could play a crucial role in the outcome of the election, particularly for President Donald J. Trump, who needs strong voter turnout in key states to secure victory. Nevada is showing a similar trend, with Republicans making gains among these voters while Democrats hold a slight advantage in mail-in ballots.
Pennsylvania’s early voting data is less favorable for Democrats. Absentee ballot requests among Democrats are down by approximately 1.2 million compared to 2020, while Republicans have seen a smaller decline, around 250,000 fewer requests. This reduced Democratic turnout could provide Republicans with an opening in one of the most critical states for the 2024 election.
With two weeks to go, the early voting landscape suggests Republicans are making significant inroads, particularly by engaging voters who have not traditionally been as active in previous elections. These trends could have a substantial impact on the final outcome as Election Day approaches.