October is shaping up to be the month that could win the midterm election for the GOP as a recent poll shows voters Republicans gaining 18 percentage points from independent voters between October 14 and October 28.
According to a CBS/YouGov poll taken between October 26 and 28, independent voters preferred generic congressional Republican candidates over generic Democratic candidates 49% to 33%. In the same poll taken between October 12 and 14, the numbers favored Democratic candidates 40% to 38%.
CBS News /YouGov: Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Trends Among 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬
Democrats 40% (D+2)
Republicans 49% (R+16)
✅ That's 𝟭𝟴-𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 Swing among Independents towards the GOP pic.twitter.com/lQzxSS752e
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 30, 2022
Many people are questioning the results of these polls because of the dramatic shift in less than two weeks, but what cannot be questioned is that Republican candidates are making a heavy push to win many of the more hotly contested seats with just a week to go before the election.
Overwhelmingly, including this ipsos poll, data is showing that the economy and inflation are the two biggest concerns of likely voters moving into the November midterms. It is also clear that independent voters believe that Republicans will do a better job on these two issues.
According to The Hill, Democrats have responded to this polling in this way: “Rather than trying to change the national conversation on the economy and running ads highlighting what the party has done and will continue to do to bring down prices, Democratic advertising has been almost solely focused on abortion, while Republicans are slamming Democrats on the airwaves with economy-focused hits.”
An article from Axios highlights the Democratic push toward abortion ads. While Democrats in battleground states have focused primarily on abortion, Republicans have focused on inflation, the economy, and crime.
The election is next week, and with the trend of Democratic candidates focusing on issues that are not most important to voters, Republicans could win both the House and Senate with ease. An 18-point swing in 15 days may seem far-fetched, but Republicans win on the economy and inflation, and those are the two issues that the majority of independent voters are focusing on during this election cycle.