Belarus tyrant Alexander Lukashenko aspires to be the moral equal of Mussolini’s Italy during World War II. He was “elected” in 1994 in the “one man, one vote, one-time” election that Putin envisaged for Ukraine when he installed his proxy, Viktor Yanukovych.
Belarus has been assisting Russia’s military effort but has not taken an active role in the battle. According to a senior US intelligence officer, Belarus plans to send troops into Ukraine as soon as Monday. Belarus leaders’ decision to involve Belarus further in the war is contingent on discussions between Russia and Ukraine.
The Russian troops available for this operation do not support a four-axis advance. The amount of forces stationed outside of Kyiv, in particular, is insufficient to launch an attack on the capital. A Belarussian onslaught would make a takeover of Kyiv much more likely.
Moreover, Putin pulls his puppet into this conflict for a deeper cause. It is no secret that the Russians have suffered losses. As the battle carries on, accidents, direct combat, drone attacks and partisan actions will add up to 1-200 each day. Bringing in soldiers from Belarus allows Putin to shift some casualties away from his books and onto the books of a client state. There is speculation that Vladimir Putin aims to merge Ukraine and Belarus into a single country. Placing the Belarusian military under Russian command would be the first step in that direction. There are increasing indications that it is happening. In Russian media, a quick-and-deleted essay reveals what Vladimir Putin wants Russia to achieve from the Ukraine invasion and how he could gain it.
Therefore Lukashenko thinks long and hard about what his actions will imply now that Russia’s sanctions are being directed at his country. On June 10, 1940, when France’s defenses were collapsing in the face of the German Blitzkrieg, Benito Mussolini declared war on France and began an offensive into the French Alpine area. “On this tenth day of June, nine hundred and forty, the hand that held the dagger stabbed it into the back of its neighbor,” Roosevelt commemorated Mussolini’s deception.